As of Thursday evening, it looks like August will finish as a good month for the markets.  Although bonds were relatively flat (corporate bonds in pink and gov’t bonds in blue), major equity indices were generally positive, led by international stocks in red followed by US stocks in green.

Seasonally speaking, the August – September period has historically been a weak season for stocks.  But this year we’re going into the season with a probable interest rate cut in September and solid economic growth in the 2^nd quarter.  We’ll have to see if it’s good enough to keep markets positive through September.

When measuring the growth of the US economy (Gross Domestic Product, or GDP), there is an enormous amount of data to be analyzed and verified.

As such, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases three versions of quarterly GDP growth.  The first estimate, or advance estimate, is released about 1 month after the end of the quarter being measured.  As more data comes in and is analyzed, the second estimate comes out 2 months after quarter-end and the final estimate is published about 3 months after quarter-end.

This week we received the second estimate of GDP for the 2^nd quarter and it was 3.3%, stronger than the advance estimate of 3.0% from a month ago.  This is a good sign that the US economy is doing better than expected.  While there is some concern the economy may be weakening in the 3^rd quarter, the Atlanta Fed’s real-time forecast for the current quarter is 2.2% growth while the New York Fed is forecasting 2.01% GDP growth.  Basically, US economic growth is solid with no concerns of a recession in the near-term.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast/#nowcast/2025:Q3

 

While the labor markets have seen some deceleration in job creation over the summer, the weekly initial unemployment claims are not showing any signs of concern.

Have a great Labor Day weekend.

 

Jack C. Harmon II, CFP^®, CIMA

Principal, Harmon Financial Advisors

Registered Principal, Raymond James Financial Services

 

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