The much-delayed September jobs report came out this week and showed that the US economy created substantially more jobs than expected during the month. The Dow Jones consensus estimate for September was 50,000 jobs versus the actual report of 119,000.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/20/jobs-report-september-2025.html
This is welcome news, but it’s still considered an “old” number and some are concerned that it may not accurately represent the current labor market.
The unemployment rate ticked higher, up to 4.4% from the August reading of 4.3%.
Without more current data from the Department of Labor due to the government shutdown, it may seem as if we don’t have a good handle on what’s going on in the labor markets in November. That’s not necessarily true. We continue receiving weekly updates of unemployment claims, which are a good real-time indicator of stress in the jobs market. In spite of the much-reported layoffs in the news, jobless claims are holding steady.
Additionally, the Atlanta Fed continues to revise their estimates for 3rd quarter GDP higher, now forecasted at 4.2%. But the markets shrugged off the good economic news this week and instead focused on the high valuations of AI-related stocks, pushing major stock indices lower.
We continue to believe the US economy is too healthy to raise concerns over a significant market decline and the current equity market activity likely represents an appropriate repricing of risk assets.
Have a great weekend.
Jack C. Harmon II, CFP®, CIMA
Principal, Harmon Financial Advisors
Registered Principal, Raymond James Financial Services
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