Markets continue to rise and fall on speculation related to the conflict in Iran. While it’s certainly possible that some sort of resolution could come in the next week or two, we believe the markets have been too optimistic and likely remain so. Markets have so far taken President Trump at his word – this is a 4- to 6-week affair. We’re roughly 4 weeks into this conflict, so that makes developments over the next two weeks, or lack thereof, very important for markets.
Extra oil supplies have been added to global markets to blunt the shock of losing 20% of global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. 32 Member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market earlier this month. As of February 2026, approximately 300 million barrels of Russian and Iranian oil were at sea, stored in a “shadow fleet” of tankers attempting to skirt US sanctions on its sale. The US has temporarily suspended sanctions on this oil, allowing it to enter the market. This 700-million-barrel injection of oil has, so far, kept oil prices from spiking even higher, but this additional oil supply will be gone in the next 2 weeks.
https://mei.edu/policymemo/how-iran-china-and-russia-use-the-shadow-fleet-to-evade-us-sanctions/
Without additional supply, energy prices will likely move even higher over the coming weeks.
Here’s what other countries are currently paying for gasoline, with the cheapest on the left and more expensive as you move right across the table. USA is highlighted in blue.
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
This type of uncertainty reminds us why diversification and flexibility in portfolio design are so important. While major stock indices are lower for the year and bond indices are relatively flat, many alternative investment strategies remain positive. Alternative investment strategies are designed with the intention of generating positive returns over time while not depending heavily on positive returns in the stock or bond markets.
Additionally, our proprietary tactical risk model has become increasingly conservative during March, remaining positive year-to-date and is positive today (as of noon).
I probably won’t write an email next week as I will be on vacation in the North Georgia mountains with family coming to visit from Ohio.
Have a great weekend.
Jack C. Harmon II, CFP®, CIMA
Principal, Harmon Financial Advisors
Registered Principal, Raymond James Financial Services
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