The November jobs report was released this morning and showed 227,000 jobs created in November vs an anticipated 214,000. However, the unemployment rate ticked a little higher to 4.2% last month. A stronger jobs report could have caused concern for the Fed that the downward trend of inflation was in jeopardy, but the increase in the unemployment rate will give the Fed confidence that another interest rate cut this month is still appropriate. After the jobs report, markets now have the odds of a 0.25% rate cut at 88.8%.
It has been about a month since the elections and we can now look back to see what the post-election rally has looked like. US stocks (pink) have led the rally up about 5.5%, while foreign stocks (red) have risen just 2.0%. US dividend stocks (light blue) look like corporate bonds (green), up about 1.5%, and government bonds (blue) are up 0.5%.
As we approach the end of the year, we are starting to hear a lot of predictions for what the markets are likely to do in 2025. Please don’t pay any attention to these forecasts because the track record for 1-year market forecasts is awful. 5-year forecasts can be interesting, and 10-year forecasts are useful, but 1-year forecasts are just guesses.
Have a great weekend.
Jack C. Harmon II, CFP®, CIMA
Principal, Harmon Financial Advisors
Registered Principal, Raymond James Financial Services
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