Stocks had a strong week this week as 3rd quarter earnings for US companies have been solid.
Oil prices spiked higher this week after President Trump sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil companies (Rosneft and Lukoil) in an effort to bring President Putin to the negotiating table over Ukraine.
Before rising above $62 per barrel, the price of oil had fallen below $58 per barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest it’s been since January 2021.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
It’s Day 24 of the government shutdown and the federal government has suspended all economic data compilation with the exception of September inflation data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September inflation data this morning because the Social Security Administration uses it as a benchmark for cost-of living adjustments in benefit checks. The inflation report showed that prices rose last month by 0.3%, less than the forecast of 0.4%. As such, the inflation rate rose from 2.9% to 3.0% versus an anticipated rate of 3.1%.
“Like an oasis slaking the thirst of a weary desert traveler, today’s CPI number offered investors the first tidbit of information from the barren wasteland of government data that has existed since the shutdown started Oct 1,” wrote John Kerschner, global head of securitized products at Janus Henderson. “Investors were not disappointed. Inflation came in softer than expected, leading to a tepid bond market rally, and ensuring that the Fed will cut rates at next week’s Open Market Committee meeting.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/24/cpi-inflation-september-2025.html
While the inflation rate is moving further away from the Fed’s target of 2%, prices in general have not risen dramatically higher due to tariffs as many had feared. At least not yet. There are a number of inflationary trends developing that are worth watching for 2026.
Finally, after receiving this last data point, the Social Security Administration announced today that the 2026 COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) for Social Security checks would be 2.8%. This means Social Security retirement benefits will increase by about $56 per month on average starting in January. Over the last 20 years, the Social Security COLA has averaged 2.6%, according to The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group.
Have a great weekend.
Jack C. Harmon II, CFP®, CIMA
Principal, Harmon Financial Advisors
Registered Principal, Raymond James Financial Services
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